Garry de la Pomerai is an independent DRR and EEWS Consultant at SOLUZION, Ertha Group project development. He is stationed in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Dimitar Ouzounov is a professor of research at Chapman University, USA, and is also associated with the Ertha Group project development.

The evidence is clearly visible for ‘the need’, but, the consequences of ‘not engaging’ with the available Advance Earthquake Early Warning System are even more obvious.

Effects of earthquakes in the last 20 years

Early Warning has been defined as “the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organisations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2009). This definition is also upheld by IPCC (2012). Earthquakes remain one of the highest casualty disaster events in the world and, unlike meteorological events, have to date zero warnings except for a few nations with p-wave early warning, generating at most a 60second alarm, and even that is outside of the 25km radius from the most destructive epicenter zone. In addition, earthquakes are the root cause of a wider spread destructive zone of the tsunami. The latest widely covered tragedy has been in Turkey and Syria, with a casualty toll in excess of 50,000. In Nepal, in the year 2015, it killed over 9000 in rural communities alone. Deaths in Kashmir were in excess of 79,000. In 2008 Sichuan’s final casualty figures were in excess of 90,000; in Haiti (the year 2010), 220,00 plus, and in 2004, the Great tsunami caused over 230,000 deaths.

The destructive costs were equally staggering with Nepal @ $5bn; Kashmir @ nearly $6bn, Sichuan @ $86bn; and the Tsunami @only 13bn, primarily because coastal damage is associated with fishing and lower cost housing, unlike major conurbations of Cities above hypo- centres ruptures. All of these events did not benefit from any form of early warning. The value of EWS can be measured in monetary terms through cost-benefit ratios, which can manifest gains of up to 500:1 depending on the hazard type and on the overall response capacity of communities (Teisberg & Weiher, 2008).

The science history of Seismic EW development

The purpose of having any early warning is to ensure that a timely message or alarm is received by those at risk as soon as practicably possible. Earthquake response systems to date are automated alarms, limited to triggering a very short 5 to 40 seconds early warning and only to those outside of the epicentral ‘blind zone,’ curtailing the desirable opportunities of early warning in minimizing casualties. However, reviews of early warning applications worldwide suggested that this [EEWS] time can still be used to reduce the impact of an earthquake within the extended destructive zone. Cremen and Galalsoso (2020) listed the following earthquake early Warning Systems [EEWS] under development in the form of p-wave detection systems, in Japan (Hoshiba et al., 2008), Taiwan (Hsiao et al., 2009), Turkey (Alcik et al., 2009), Romania (Mârmureanu et al., 2011), USA (Given et al., 2014), India (Kumar et al., 2014), Mexico (Cuéllar et al., 2017), South Korea (Dong-Hoon et al., 2017), and China (Ji et al. 2019). They are also being tested for use in Spain (Pazos et al., 2015), Italy (Zollo et al.,2016), Israel (Nof and Allen, 2016), Chile (Crowell et al., 2018), Nicaragua (Strauch et al., 2018), Greece, New Zealand and Iceland (Behr et al., 2016). Nepal and Indonesia outsourced their EEW system developments but have not yet installed functioning systems. The key to adequate early warning is to be reliable and presented in an intelligent messaging format to enable educated decision-making within a trained society (Allen, 2016). Individuals can use the alert time to drop, cover, and hold, reducing injuries and fatalities. The benefits outweigh the costs, and even presently available EEW [p-wave EWS] could reduce the number of earthquake injuries by up to 50%. However, assets remain at risk.

Brief introduction of Advanced EW pre- earthquake Science

So, what about advanced warnings before the rupture event? Reporting physical phenomena observations before large earthquakes covers a historical span of about twenty-five centuries. Historically, a leading scientist of ancient Greece, Aristotle, reported comprehensively about earthquake-associated phenomena. In Meteorologica (Aristotle, 1982) described his theory of “pneuma,” a phenomenon emanating before earthquakes. Later in the XIX century, Alexander von Humboldt explained that “pneuma” as a wind, an air, a gas in motion (Humboldt, 1897), and independently confirmed at the beginning of the 20th century by Russian academician V. Vernadsky (Vernadsky, 1945). Many recent studies have reported the possible connection between the coupling process in the atmosphere and the ionosphere, with the parameters of earthquake processes (Ouzounov et al., 2018; Pulinets et al., 2022). The latest studies show that no individual method (geochemical, magnetic field, thermal infrared (TIR), ionospheric variation, or GPS/TEC observations) can provide successful and consistent short-term warnings on a global scale. However, the synchronized use of selected standardized measurements, linked to a standard physical mechanism and integrated within an interdisciplinary-based network of sensors on the ground and from space, potentially will provide critical information for identifying the pre-earthquake signals (Ouzounov et al., 2018). This was the main reason for proposing the integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (Fig.1). The approach is a multiple sensors platform of coordinated observations that covers large areas and provides temporal and spatial coherence in the monitoring. The practical advantage is that it facilitates maximal use of existing, previously validated measurements, to be integrated into one framework validated with the latest physical models. It also is an open system that allows additional observations to be acquired when new sources become available (Ouzounov et al., 2018).

The Advanced earthquake warning community is applying different observation techniques to study the earthquake genesis, the origin processes, and the phenomena that precede their energy release. The scientific rationale for the interdisciplinary Advance Earthquake Early Warnings (AEEW) is based on the LAIC concept (Ouzounov et al., 2018), which explains the synergy of the different physical processes and anomalous variations, usually associated with short-term pre-earthquake anomalies. The validation method is based on a web of several physical and environmental parameters – satellite thermal and radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere (GPS/TEC), and air temperature measurements that were found to be associated with major earthquakes (M>6). To check the predictive potential of pre-earthquake signals, they validate different AEEW signals in retrospective and prospective modes over Japan, Taiwan, and the Mediterranean. Ari Ben-Menahem,1995 warned the seismological community: “Seismology has reached a stage where its lofty goals will not be reached by seismologists alone, and unless we launch an interdisciplinary research and observational effort, we shall always be surprised by the next major earthquake.” Unfortunately, he was right; 28 years later, about 30 destructive earthquakes have since claimed an aggregate count of close to a million lives lost, and damage worth hundreds of billions of US dollars: short–term prediction was not issued before any of those earthquakes.

Social Impact and benefits of Advanced EEW

Collaboration with sovereign Governments, UN Agencies, and INGOs is essential as identified by UNDP’s report: ‘2018: Five approaches to build functional early warning systems’. Report says: ‘A particular effort ‘need’ be made to make the communication lines between different agencies clearer, eliminating any redundant and duplicated channel, as well as inefficiencies. To achieve this, Standard Operating Protocols, Communication Protocols, and Codes of Conduct will be developed for each of the agencies responsible for the various elements of the early warning system. Thanks to these protocols, the roles of regional and local authorities will be made clear, and redundancies in tasks and expertise areas will be avoided’ (UNDP). However, it is necessary to first have the science and technology to implement earthquake early warning.

The previous paragraphs have gone some way to explain the present ability to generate early warning beyond the traditional p-wave 60seconds. So, what can be achieved with the additional advanced warning time? Security of society is a dominant feature, as per all disasters where initial chaos ensues, commercial assets and personal possessions security and that of critical infrastructure, prisons, the marginalized, children and the vulnerable in society are all at risk, however with days of advanced notice, security services such as police and army and national guards, would be capable of distributing personnel throughout the epicentral zone in advance. In addition, response and aid agencies could be located and shelters set up at predetermined locations to receive the evacuated and provide the necessary support to communities during the ensuing days of assessment and recovery.

The retail industry could pack, store and protect shelf stock, industry protect their machinery, IT back up critical data, hot sites be activated for Corporates, hospitals could reposition ambulances away from centralised parking liable to destruction, and reschedule patient care to ensure continuity of critical health services; schools can use the time to protect vital records and student works and laboratory equipment, practicing drop cover hold in preceding days, and evacuating to safe ground in preceding hours of calculated event time.

Potential Response strategy development

The formal response needs to be strategised and implemented though official channels, usually via the National Disaster Management Agencies. However, there will be various phases of preparedness, as the anomaly signatures develop. The approach will require a cascade of communications. The sovereign government of each country will determine the protocols for the cascade of early warning messaging. Some Nations will have different priorities of who may receive phased warnings first and last during a potential one-month process. In Fig 2. we provide an example of phased warnings. There will be numerous considerations to be absorbed and decided before a formal blueprint can be established for a Nation. There will also be a need to take into account the time of day, the season and topography, and present climatic activity. In addition, we need to consider and implement preparedness and training across all societies. An untrained population will remain confused and act counter-productively with any early warning messaging, regardless of where it originates. An important factor is a relationship with the media and setting controls and protocols to manage a structured and phased release of information, limiting the population’s stress, uncertainty, and panic. Any sector of society that feels the need to act randomly will obviously hinder all others from a disciplined approach. Crowd dynamics will play an important role in ensuring efficient response.

Security of communities and assets will be a high priority and a natural major concern of the average person, being asked or expected to evacuate from vulnerable locations. Consequently, timely preparedness and planning of police and armed services are crucial. Prisons will need extra supervision, and critical infrastructure will need protection. Spontaneous looting and the potential of terrorism will need to be taken into account, by those taking advantage of a vulnerable society. The safety of displaced families, especially children separated in confusion, will be prioritised. Collaborations with multiple bodies will be paramount if a government and its agencies are to cope.

Network requirements and collaborations

Significant lessons can be learnt from the meteorological warning systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones, all of which within their part of the world have similar warning protocols and response procedures from days in advance to their final hours to landfall. Advanced earthquake early warning now delivers the same opportunities to prepare society.

Unsurprisingly, earthquakes can similarly generate secondary events potentially emerging as either wider catastrophic events beyond the epicentre zone such as tsunamis, or local singular hazards such as Fires, landslides, Dam collapses. The next level of complication are complex scenarios, where secondary events cascade into the unpredictable, such as simultaneous rains dislodging already destabilized hillsides into Mudslides, which tend to travel further than just landslides. Tsunamis inundating coastal energy plants in countries far beyond the reach of earthquake-destructive tremors. Also, landslides within ravines and valleys that block access to Search and Rescue/ Aid response, or indeed block natural water courses causing backup flooding, which can inundate earthquake-resilient critical infrastructure and industry; Chemical fire generated by the earthquake within the industry may well cause toxic fume within search and rescue arenas. These scenarios require consideration, threshold planning, and additional
early warning alarm systems in the already stressed communities. Consequently, the opportunity with advanced early warning becomes paramount for specific epicenter location modeling of all potential risks and secondary /complex event scenarios in the preceding days of the earthquakes.

Global Policy

The UN Sendai Framework identified Seven priorities, the seventh being Target (g): Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030. However, we are yet to see reliable and authentic advanced earthquake early warning systems to be implemented anywhere globally, even though it is offered. The second Target (b). prevention, protection, and reducing the number of people affected by disasters was the target goal of 2017. The safety of all, but with a particular focus on those at greater risk of death, injury, ill-health, loss of livelihood, displacement, and lack of access to basic services from disaster events, including women and children, people living with disabilities, and older persons. These groups have varying degrees of exposure to disaster events and must be included in disaster risk management planning. The Campaign encompassed the other key indicators for Target (b): protection against injury, ill health and loss of livelihood”.

This specific target, ‘priority two’ of the seven definitely requires MHEWS. For example, in the recent Turkey earthquake, with an advanced early warning system in place, we could have potentially, saved the vast majority of the casualties and billions of dollars of personal and protectable economic assets. We need also to remember that earthquakes or any disastrous event, interrupts the daily healthcare regime of those already ill from multiple ailments, requiring medicines, outpatient treatments and inpatient hospital treatment. In 2015 Ghorka earthquake, 83.5% of the 793 public healthcare facilities across the 14 most affected districts were destroyed or partially damaged, losing medicines, not replaced for many months, and hospitals becoming inundated with an extra 22,000 earthquake victims, requiring over 7000 emergency surgical operations and further 117,000 outpatient treatments (Goyet et all., 2018). The normal system for daily healthcare became totally dependent upon the 137 international medical teams from 36 countries.

Summary

By providing an Advanced Earthquake Early Warning System (AEEWS) capability to even suggest an earthquake risk, with surety a few days in advance, enables the society to prepare, ensure stocked medicines, basic provisions and secure personal possessions and protect exposed assets. However, buildings still require to meet Building Codes; people still need be trained to respond correctly; critical infrastructure still needs be robust; but by engaging an AEEWS during the preceding weeks to final days, enables society to become resilient to earthquakes, minimising loss of life and protectable assets.

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