Muhammed Sulfikkar Ahamed is an urban planner by training. Having received his urban planning degree from NIT Calicut, he has researched subjects such as disaster risk management, transportation, and other fields related to city planning.
Ranit Chatterjee is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at Kyoto University and the Co-founder of RIKA India. Trained as an architect, he has a doctoral degree in environmental management from Kyoto University, Japan. His work cuts across architecture, heritage and the private sector in relation to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.
Rajib Shaw is the Director of India Japan Laboratory at Keio University and Co-founder of RIKA India. His expertise includes community-based disaster risk management, climate change adaptation, urban risk management, and disaster and environmental education.
The COVID-19 pandemic had led to the closure of the global economy, restricting its complete potential and subsequently widening the existent socio-economic disparities. Cascading hazards, which are a repercussion of urban mismanagement and climate change, had affected various parts of the world, claiming lives and contracting an already overburdened governance system. One of the most critical cascading risks was the locust crisis which affected the East African-South Asian region, significantly impacting the regional progress to sustainability, especially Goal 1 and 2 on Poverty and Zero Hunger. This article discusses the cascading locust plague, analyses its effects and suggests a way forward for a resilient future.
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015- 30 (SFDRR) thrusts on risksensitive planning that addresses various risk patterns, including new and emerging risk patterns (UNDRR, 2015). The emerging risks challenge the incumbent risk management systems, as they are characterised by uncertainty and decreased strategic planning, which results in widespread losses. Further, it hinders progress towards sustainability. The future of resilience planning is insignificant without framing a comprehensive risk management strategy that involves prospective risk appraisals. This involves various actions such as identification and understanding of future trends, organising disaster risk reduction, and validating emergency plans with emergent risk patterns. While there is a general trend of consensus in future risk management planning, there is a clear need for specialised studies to comprehend further.
The COVID-19 pandemic was an overwhelming experience for the global community. The pandemic, which started in early 2020, halted the regular functioning of the world. It affected various sectors of society and induced stress in the production, distributions, and linkages across the globalised world. While the world was reeling under the pandemic, cascading hazards associated with climate change, started to induce further stress in the world; the most prominent transboundary hazard being the locust outbreak which disrupted parts of the East African-South Asian zone. Experts suggest the crisis as an aftermath of cyclones of 2018-19 around the East African-South Asian zone, which resulted in heavy showers in the Arabian Peninsula, and allowed at least three generations of undetected breeding (FAO, 2020). The risk is huge as in favourable conditions; the locusts could breed at higher rates and could result in increased risk amongst marginalised communities such as food scarcity as the climate changeinduced Indian Ocean dipole is found to exacerbate the conditions.
Locust Crisis and Climate Change
The locust outbreak of 2020 was one of the most devastating pest infestations experienced in world history (FAO, 2020). Desert locusts are a form of short-horned locusts, which are found in the arid regions of Africa, Arabia and South Asia. The species poses a significant threat to food security and trades in the global market as they are devoured eaters and can affect the food markets and associated economies. The desert species could react to climate variations and adjust its metabolism from a solitary, short-winged, nonmigratory species to a long-winged, migratory species, desecrating food production in its pathway. These swarms can cover 150 km a day, and a swarm of 80 million adults, could consume the same amount of food as 35,000 humans in a day (World Bank, 2020). Countries such as Morocco and Ethiopia have lost millions in the past in money and agricultural goods against the locust plagues crisis. (FAO, 2020) Desert locusts are a form of biological hazard and have been enlisted in the Hazard Definition and Classification Review, 2020, by the UNISDR panel under the cluster of insect infestation (UNDRR, 2020). These locusts have been a common phenomenon and have been used as part of a diet by various communities in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the world. But, in recent years, these locust swarms have been overwhelming and experts suggest that they are linked to cyclones and associated heavy rains in the empty quarters of the Arabian Peninsula during May and October of 2018. This could be linked to the phenomenon of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), whereby the warmer ocean in the western Indian Ocean results in heavy rainfall and cyclones in the western parts and reduced rainfall and droughts in the eastern counterpart. Experts suggest that longer positive IOD has become a common phenomenon in the Indian Ocean in the last few years, influencing the weather pattern and disasters in the western counterparts (Kukreti et al., 2020). The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reports that these cyclones have resulted in unprecedented breeding of three generations in 2018, spreading to various parts of the world in 2019, and encountered favourable conditions due to climate change. This helped in their undetected breeding in regions such as Yemen, Iran, and so on, which led to the crisis in 2020. (FAO, 2020)
India and the Locust Crisis
India has a history of independent locust attacks dating back to the British period. During the British rule, the Indian Subcontinent had serious outbreaks in 1812, 1897- 99, 1927 and so on. The 1927 locust attack paved the way for the Standing Locust Committee in 1929 and The Central Locust Bureau of 1930, which then transformed to the present day Locust Warning Organization (LWO).
While India’s Locust Warning Organization (LWO) has been monitoring the situation for decades, officers share their concern about the changing trends of their arrivals over the last few years, disrupting plans, which is complexed by abnormal breeding. Researchers suggest that the regions of India around Rajasthan have become a locust breeding ground, exposing more regions to their attack in recent times. Agencies have reported that in 2020, there were locust attacks in 18 districts of Rajasthan and 12 districts of Madhya Pradesh. The issue is further complicated by the changing climatic and wind patterns, characterised by heavy showers that help in the breeding processes. While significant measures have been advocated by governmental organisations, there is an underlying transboundary challenge that this hazard brings about. Besides, these outbreaks would damage agriculture and affect the socially underprivileged in the country as they are dependent on the primary sector.
Emerging Challenges of the Locust Crisis
Successive waves of locusts would create several challenges which could impact the sustainable livelihoods of the society. The following section details the possible issues and challenges of the locust crisis under various fields:
Food security risk amidst the global pandemic: The locust swarm amidst the global pandemic has affected crop production in the world. Available resources suggest that around 130 million populations would be under the threat of food security by 2020 and, the locust crisis has exacerbated the risk pattern (FAO et al., 2020). The locust outbreak was a major cascading hazard, and disruptions in the supply chains for pesticides and other services due to the pandemic had affected the effective management of this hazard. Croplands across Ethiopia, Kenya and Pakistan has already suffered damages, impacting the revival of these communities, as these regions had prevailing food security issues, like the drought-affected communities of Balochistan, Asia, and so on. In India, the locust outbreak had already destroyed 25,000 hectares of land parcels and affected districts in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and so on. (Raja M. and Ranganathan, 2020)
Ecological Challenges: The locust outbreak is detrimental to other plant-dependent species and native-grazing species. The swarms are known to devour large green covers along the pathways which serve as sustenance to the grazing communities. These could further impact the habitats of these species and would result in human-animal conflicts eventually. An example would be the impact of a locust outbreak on the Grévy’s Zebras, which are a threatened endemic species (Raja M. and Ranganathan, 2020).
Sustainability, SFDRR and the Locust Outbreak: Locust swarms could impact the world’s progress to sustainability as it could affect the progress in various goals such as SDG-1, SDG-2, etc., that focus on promoting zero poverty and hunger. These could also affect the SFDRR priority area progress for 2030. The locust infestation has revealed the systemic gaps in the comprehension of Priority Area-1 and Priority Area-2 and has affected goals such as effective early warning systems, which needs to be planned for efficacy.
Global Good Practices for Locust Control
Amidst responses, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) had formulated various steps to eradicate the locust outbreak for decades. The Locust and Transboundary Plant Pests and Diseases Group at the FAO headquarters is responsible for assisting member countries in managing migratory pests, mainly locusts, and diseases through early warning and early reaction. The group has been monitoring the locust plague for five decades and has set up regional commissions for the effective regional management of the locust plague. The FAO’s Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) was set up as the focal point for locust-related information for operations in the early warning system for desert locust plague and the department facilitates meetings with the partner nations to promote a transboundary risk management plan. The department has been employing local practices such as the ‘eLocust3m’ mobile application for real-time data collection and dissemination and employing onfield officers for service delivery (FAO, 2021). One of the most important FAO campaigns of locust plague eradication is the locust outbreak in Madagascar, 2013. The major principles of the threeperiod campaigns (2013-16) were:
• Improving monitor capacity and locust situation analysis
• Strengthen locust control capacity
• Preservation of human health and environment
• Programme implementation and coordination
• Assessment of the programme’s effectiveness in the region (FAO, 2013) The locust plague was halted as a result of this campaign, and it helped in the recovery of 2.3 million hectares of land and 13 million populations. This has improved the region’s food security and has aided in regulating the progress to sustainability. India has also responded to the locust attacks in the region. Apart from formulating the Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approach, the Government has launched schemes such as the ‘Locust Control and Research Scheme’, to promote assistance to State Governments and Union Territories for protection against the locust plague crisis. The LWO, India, under the Locust Control and Research Center, has been mandated to:
• Monitor, warn and control
• Research on the bioefficacy of new pesticide molecules
• Fulfill the international obligations with FAO, UN.
• Participate in and organise South-West Asia Regional Commission for desert locust control. Even while government agencies have the plague under control, the potential threat to the region is still persistent. The present usage of pesticides for locust prevention would eventually affect human health and well-being.
Promoting a Way Forward
The locust crisis transcends national boundaries and is cross-sectoral. Therefore, an effective management strategy that builds on the lessons learned, is needed for locust control. The authors identify the following strategies as imperative for future locust control:
•Utilisation of Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) Strategy: Climate change and the related hazard patterns influence the range of the pest species. SDM is a modelling/predictive strategy to analyse the range of species in time using environmental factors. These models can be used to understand how environmental conditions influence the range of occurrence of locust species and aid in predictions. Governmental organisations and scientific communities should facilitate a standardised modelling strategy as the process can aid the communities in identifying the possible risk zones and promoting sustainable agriculture.
•Strengthening transboundary diplomatic relations for effective early detection, warning and disaster risk management: Transboundary management is a crucial aspect of disaster risk reduction. The locust crisis of 2020 was a cross-country challenge, and was temporal in nature, as discussed in the article. Strengthened regional and intercontinental diplomatic ties are essential for effective risk zone mapping and species distribution modelling. This could aid early warning and detection of breeding grounds and help in
improved crisis management and capacity building. These strategies could be undertaken at the national and international levels. Therefore, countries must work on the existing gaps and strengthen the interlinkages for effective management and for addressing the SFDRR priorities.
•Research on biological pest management systems: Large scale chemical pesticides are currently utilised for locust management, which is detrimental for the ecology. Biological pest management for locust infestation was practised in the country in the 19th century. The practices need revival as the present use of pesticides could result in human health deterioration, land degradation and in the phenomenon such as eutrophication. Research on biological pests management systems that are suitable for local capacity building should be promoted for ensuring locust control and reduce ecological impacts in the future.
•Extension of locust management plans and capacity building schemes for the States of India could also improve effective pest management as more States have come under the radar of the locust crisis in recent years. These could be done as a part of the yearly disaster risk management plans, wherein locust risks zoning is accommodated as a section. Capacity building schemes such as promoting training programmes for the locals are a major step in improving ground-level crisis management. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should work together to promote training programmes for local communities encountering locust attacks. Further capacity building schemes should also be promoted for effective management.
Bibliography
• FAO (2013) Response to the Locust Plague Programme – Campaign 2013/14. Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/bl239e/ bl239e.pdf. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• FAO (2020) Desert Locust Upsurge | Global Response Plan, January–December 2020. Rome. Available at: http://www.fao. org/3/ca9249en/CA9249EN.pdf. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (2020) The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming Food Systems for Affordable Healthy Diets. Rome: FAO. doi: https://doi. org/10.4060/ca9692en.Accessed 22 April, 2021
• FAO (2021) Progress Report on the Response in Southwest Asia, (May– December 2020). Rome.
• Kukreti, I., Sangomla, A., Kapil, S., Sushma, M. and Varshney, V. (2020) ‘Locust Swarm Invasion_ The Wind Factor’, DowntoEarth. Available at: https://www.downtoearth.org. in/news/climate-change/locustswarm- invasion-the-wind-factor- 72135#:~:text=When conditions are less favourable,after two generations of breeding. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• Raja M., N. and Ranganathan, P. (2020) Locust Swarms in India_ Millimeters in size but millions in numbers, Mongabay. Available at: https://india. m o n g a b a y . c o m / 2 0 2 0 / 0 6 / explainer-locust-swarms-in-indiamillimeters- in-size-but-millions-innumbers/#:~: text=According to a recent report,Rajasthan on May 13%2C 2020. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• UNDRR (2015) Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015- 2030. Available at: https://www. preventionweb.net/files/43291_ sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• UNDRR (2020) Hazard Definition & Classification Review: Technical Report, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Geneva. Available at: https://www. undrr.org/publication/hazarddefinition- and- classificationreview. Accessed 22 April, 2021
• World Bank (2020) The Locust Crisis: The World Bank’s Response, World Bank. Available at: https:// www.worldbank.org/en/news/ factsheet/2020/04/27/the-locustcrisis- the-world-banks-response. Accessed 22 April, 2021
