With the third wave of Covid-19 on the decline, researchers now predict that a fourth wave may begin in India around June 22 and continue till October 24. The severity of a fourth wave, however, will depend on the emergence of new variants and the vaccination status of people, including the administration of a booster dose, they said.
Researchers from IIT Kanpur have predicted that a fourth wave of Covid-19, if there is one, will last at least four months. The statistical prediction has been published on the preprint server MedRxiv on February 24.
The curve will reach peak from August 15 to 31 and thereafter decline. This is the third time that researchers from IIT Kanpur have predicted a Covid-19 wave in the country. Their predictions, particularly about the third wave, have been near accurate, with a deviation of only a few days.
The research was conducted by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT Kanpur. Using a statistical model for their prediction, the team said a fourth wave in India may arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date of the Covid-19 outbreak (January 30, 2020, when the first case in the country was officially registered).
