Global Temperatures Set to Reach New Records in Next Five Years

March - April 2023

Global Temperatures Set to Reach New RecordGlobal temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.  There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas.

There is only a 32% chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.  For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceedance. 

Seven Disasters have Cost the US $19 Billion in 2023: NOAA

The first four months of 2023 have seen seven disasters in the United States that cost the country over a billion dollars, according to the latest analysis by the federal department National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Many parts of the United States have also reported a ‘remarkable warmth’ so far, with some states recording their warmest January-April period, said NOAA’s recent US climate report by National Centers for Environmental Information. 

The US noted five severe weather events, a northeastern winter storm / cold wave and a California flooding event to date. The total cost of these events exceeded $19 billion and resulted in 97 direct and indirect fatalities.

Only 2017 and 2020 had more disasters during this timeframe, with eight events recorded in January-April, the NOAA said. The record number of total disasters in a year in the US is 22, set in 2020, according to NOAA data. 

The billion-dollar disaster events in the US this year were: 

  • California flooding, January-March, $3.5 billion
  • Northeastern winter storm / cold wave, February 2-5, $1.5 billion
  • Two South and Eastern severe weather outbreaks, March 2-3 and March 24-26, $6.4 billion
  • Central tornado and Eastern severe weather outbreak, March 31-April 1, $4.3 billion
  • Central and Eastern severe weather, April 4-6, $2.2 billion

• Central and Southern severe weather, April 15, $1 billion.

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