Sonu Tewari is pursuing PhD from the Jamsetji Tata School of Disaster Studies at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences. Her PhD research is on understanding women’s lived experiences of forced displacement due to coastal erosion in the Sundarbans.

Forced Displacement due to disasters and climate change has become a reality for many who live in fragile and vulnerable locations across the globe. Displacement can take many forms; however, if it is left unaddressed with the disaster risk and climate change adaptation framework, it can become prolonged and protracted and can cause complex survival challenges associated with the  lives, health and livelihood of those affected. This article posits displacement within the decisions and agreements of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through the Conference of Parties. It argues that though there is recognition of the people who are displaced due to climate change and disasters and a commitment to work towards their protection and wellbeing within the UNFCCC, there is a long way to go to realise the commitments into concrete actionable steps in the area of forced displacement.

Forced displacement is one of the inevitable consequences of climate-related disasters. There is a growing recognition that climate change is one of the influencers of disaster-led displacement around the world, coupled with social, economic, environmental, cultural, and political factors. Many who are struggling with their lives, health, and livelihoods in areas experiencing disasters are forced to move to a new location for survival and the well-being of their family members. Some among them are those who have lost their lands and homes to the approaching sea, some whose land does not yield crops for subsistence, and others whose lands are being charred by a forest fire or inundated by floods. Those who displace from disasters are the ones who are most vulnerable, poor, and have limited choices but to flee for their safety and survival.

According to Internal Displacement Monitoring Committee (IDMC), out of 40.5 million people who were internally displaced in the year 2020, around 30.7 million people were displaced due to disasters. More than 98% were displaced as a result of weather-related hazards such as storms and floods (Refer to Fig 1). Accordingly, IDMC calculates the economic burden of internal displacement for individuals, communities, and economies as nearly $20.5 billion in 2020, it accounts for IDP’s housing, education, health, security needs and, loss of income.

Displacement associated with both slow-onset environmental change and rapid onset weather-related disasters cause complex survival challenges for displaced people. It is also varied in nature depending on the context in which the displacement takes place. For the sake of explanation, this article divides displacement broadly into four types based on the nature of displacement that takes place. However, the categories of displacement are not rigid, and often the boundaries between them are blurred.

Types of Displacement

1. Temporary Displacement: People who are affected by rapid-onset events like hurricane, flood, storm surge, tsunami or tropical cyclones have limited options but to displace them to a safe location for survival during disasters. Displacement in such situations is generally for a short period and is often considered as temporary where the people go back to their original habitat after the situation returns to normal.
2. Permanent Internal Displacement: People dealing with slow irreversible environmental changes like sea-level rise and coastal erosion are forced to displace due to loss of habitat, productive land, and vital ecosystem services. Other slow onset events like drought, desertification, and salinity intrusion cause acute food insecurity as they impact the environmentally-based livelihoods including agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture, and horticulture. Displacement is used as a survival strategy to cope with this loss of homes, land, and livelihoods. People in such cases, move from one region to another within the border of their country, far enough away from their places of original residence that makes their return unlikely or impossible. For example, people move from a drought-affected region to an inland town or city.
3. Permanent Local Displacement: In cases, where the two types of events, viz., slow and rapid onset disasters intertwine. For example, in the Sundarbans Delta which experiences both sea-level rise and coastal erosion along with floods and tropical cyclones, people are displaced locally but permanently due to irreversible changes to their living environment. They are the small-scale and localised movement of people within their place of residence. When rehabilitation is incomplete after a disaster, either induced by slow or rapid onset events, subsequent events, severe or non-severe, push people over the edge. They turn temporary local displacements into permanent ones, resulting in a vicious cycle.
4. Cross Border Displacement: People who do not find solutions to displacement within their own countries, displace to other countries that are willing to offer permanent protection. For example, the case of small islands that are submerging due to sea level rise, like, a Kiribati displacing permanently to New Zealand.

Each of these displacement types is unique and requires different policy and legal conceptual frameworks to address the plight of those who are displaced. In recent years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the primary international instrument dealing with climate change has brought climate displacement within its discourse. The decisions and agreements of the Convention provide hope for mitigating the rise in emission level and provide States with an opportunity to adapt to climate change.

UNFCCC began introducing the human face of climate change from the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF) in COP16 in 2010. Decision 14f in the CAF invites parties to undertake measures to enhance understanding, coordination, and cooperation concerning climate change-induced displacement, migration, and planned relocation at the national, regional, and international levels. This was the first time the global community agreed that climate change-induced mobility takes on different forms and needs diverse policy approaches. However, it did not oblige the signatory States to take action or does not specify any measures for the implementation of this decision.

A significant development that took place within the adaptation framework was the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) by the parties at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland, to examine compensation for damages caused by climate change. Till 2015, WIM treated loss and damage as an aspect of adaptation and did not provide a mechanism to provide compensation for both slow-onset and rapid-onset harms that cannot be avoided through adaptation, including climate displacement.

Climate displacement found a place in the Paris Agreement which was adopted in December 2015 as a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which seeks to hold global temperature increases to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It was a major historic agreement that not only calls for mitigation of climate change and promotion of sustainable development but also linked climate change and migration beyond adaptation. It contains a loss and damage provision which is designed to avert and address displacement. It also advised the Warsaw Mechanism’s Executive Committee to establish a task force to “develop recommendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimise, and address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change. The preamble of the Paris Agreement talks about human rights, particularly the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples, migrants, children, persons with disabilities, and people in vulnerable situations. The explicit references to human rights and climate justice in the Paris Agreement is an important step that may provide a foundation for those seeking redress for human rights violations caused by climate change.

Under the Paris Agreement, the Executive Committee (Excom) of the WIM established the cross-institutional Task Force on Displacement to formulate integrated approaches to avert, minimise and address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change by their mandate outlined by the Paris Agreement. The recommendations given by the task force were endorsed by UNFCCC in 2018 and its mandate was extended till 2021. Some of the important recommendations include formulation of national and subnational legislation, policies, and strategies to avert, minimise and address displacement, improved institutional coordination and coherence, and broader public participation. It also identified a finance gap when it comes to climate-related migration since most UNFCCC funds do not address them at all. Dealing with the protection issues of migrants and refugees involves a significant allocation of resources which includes the provision of public services, humanitarian assistance as well as the protection of rights to shelter, education, health, etc.

In recent years, within the UNFCCC, there is a growing recognition of the people who are displaced due to disasters and climate change, and therefore, a commitment to work towards their protection and well-being. However, the recommendations of the Task Force on displacement are yet to be developed into guidelines and the steps that will be taken by the Signatory States are still to be formulated. COP26 has not outlined concrete actions to realise the commitment in the area of forced displacement which will be essential to protect vulnerable communities and avoid or minimise the devastating consequences for millions of people who are displaced due to climate change.

Unfortunately, adaptation can only be possible along with mitigation of climate change. COP 26 in Glasgow, revealed that the Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs i.e. the plan of reducing emissions laid down by countries will exceed those committed during the Paris Agreement in 2015. Crossing the 2°C will have devastating consequences on people’s lives and livelihoods in vulnerable areas whereby some of the effects of climate change will not be possible to control; one among them is displacement. One last hope is the Glasgow Climate Pact. Theoretically, it is an attempt to keep the targets of the Paris Agreement alive by requesting countries “revisit and strengthen” their climate pledges by the end of 2022. Ideally, if the Glasgow Climate pact works, it will effectively mitigate climate change, thereby minimising displacement considerably.

References:

1. THEMATIC SERIES, No Matter of Choice: Displacement in a Changing Climate, IDMC 2018 assessed at: https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/20181213-slow-onset-intro.pdf
2. Global Report on Internal Displacement 2021, Internal Disaster Monitoring Committee, assessed at: https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/grid2021_idmc.pdf#page=42
3. Gonzalez, C. G. (2018). Climate Justice and Climate Displacement: Evaluating the Emerging Legal and Policy Responses. Wis. Int’l LJ, 36, 366.

     4. Kent, A., & Behrman, S. (2020). International Law and the Plight of Climate Refugees: Challenges and Future Prospects.